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Nuclear Proliferation in Asia on the Rise

It has been almost 60 years since the United States, having learned that Nazi Germany was working on a devastating fission bomb, rushed to by the first nation to develop the technology to split the atom, and use it as a weapon of mass destruction.

[clockwise from top left] 1. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. 2. Mushroom cloud from U.S. bombing of Nagasaki Japan on August 9th, 1945. 3. Pakistan’s President General Musharraf 4. Iran’s President Khatomi 5. India’s President Dr. Abdul Kalan.

The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan killed over 110,000 from the initial blasts alone, and brought an end to World War II. It also ushered in the age where the proverbial nuclear genie was out of the bottle. As a deterrent to the threat from the United States, four years later in 1949 the Soviet Union demonstrated their ability to match the American atomic capability by detonating their own nuclear device.

Ever since then, there has been a great deal of effort worldwide to prevent the proliferation, or spreading of nuclear technology to various other countries. The fear is that these weapons could fall into the ‘wrong’ hands, and be used to threaten, terrorize, or kill potentially millions of people almost instantly.

Yet this past decade has seen a number of new countries join the nuclear club, or at least be seen as actively having nuclear ambitions. These include arch rivals India and Pakistan, two countries that have gone to war with each other three times in the past sixty years, and two countries that President Bush has described as being part of an ‘Axis of Evil’, North Korea and Iran.

Each new country that claims to be a nuclear power increases the risk these ultimate WMD will someday again be used in battle, lost, stolen, or sold on the black market to some terrorist organization, or exploded by mishap or accident. Each new nuclear power makes the atomic equation less stable.

During the ‘Cold War’ between the east and the west, the threat of nuclear confrontation was largely contained by a doctrine aptly referred to as MAD, which stands for Mutual Assured Destruction. The idea was that if either the U.S. or the Soviet Union attacked the other with nuclear weapons, the country that was attacked would retaliate with devastating nuclear force, and both countries would likely be destroyed. This meant that a nuclear war between the two superpowers would be insanely suicidal, and therefore mad.

Besides the United States and the Soviet Union, other nuclear nations included Britain, France, and China. These same nations are also the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council with veto power over UN policies and actions.

Since the break up of the Soviet Union, Russia has inherited what was the Soviet’s nuclear arsenal.. There is some speculation that due to clerical error, Ukraine may still have several leftover warheads.

It is widely believed that Israel has a significant nuclear arsenal as well, although they have never officially declared themselves to have nukes

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968 established the policy that only those original five countries would be allowed to possess nuclear weapons legally, and those countries that did not already possess them would agree not to pursue developing nuclear weapons.

However, while most countries have signed the treaty, not all have, including the two newest nuclear club members, India and Pakistan.

In 1998, India tested several nuclear devices, including a fusion powered hydrogen bomb. Almost immediately afterwards, their rival Pakistan proved that they too had nuclear capability by detonating their own devices, thus becoming the first predominantly Muslim country to possess nuclear weapons.

As a result of their tests, the United States imposed economic sanctions on both India and Pakistan. However, over time sanctions proved futile as the U.S. had interests in working closely with both countries. India is a very large trading partner for the U.S. and Pakistan has been very instrumental in the American War on Terrorism. The sanctions have now been repealed, and the U.S. has agreed to sell two dozen F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan, and is negotiating with India to sell them planes and defense equipment as well. The two countries are working to reconcile their differences, which are primarily over a territorial dispute regarding the mountainous area of Kashmir.

There was a major security lapse in that Pakistan’s premier nuclear scientist, Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, often referred to as the “father” of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, sold nuclear technology and information to Iran, Libya and North Korea.

North Korea has now admitted to developing nuclear weapons, and insists that the aggressive posture of the United States forces them to defend themselves. While unconfirmed, it is believed that North Korea may have several nuclear devices already, and has recently been testing its missile delivery system.

In addition to their direct animosity towards the United States, there is some concern that North Korea, an extremely poor country that has suffered a number of famines in the past few years, may feel economically pressured to sell nuclear technology, components, or complete weapons to others, including American enemies. Their military hardware makes a lucrative export.

Iran has announced that they will resume the enrichment of uranium so that they may develop nuclear power for the peaceful purpose of generating electricity. The Bush Administration believe this is only a facade to hide a secret program for Iran to develop nuclear weapons, and that Iran doesn’t need nuclear energy because they have plenty of oil. The Iranians point out that all fossil fuel is finite, possibly 30-40 years worth, and maintain that they have the sovereign right to pursue the peaceful use of nuclear power.

Little Boy - The nuclear bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima August 6th, 1945. It is estimated that over 70,000 people were killed by the initial blast, with many more dying later from radiation poisoning and related illnesses, such as cancer.	Fat Man - The second nuclear bomb was dropped on Nagasaki, Japan on August 9th, 1945. Unlike the Hiroshima bomb, which was made with uranium, this bomb was fueled by plutonium. It is estimated that at least 40,000 people were killed outright with many more dying later. Six days later, Japan surrendered unconditionally, and World War II ended.

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