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U.S Presidential Elections Well Underway

By Ray Feliciano June 2007 With almost a year and a half still to go, the 2008 presidential elections are already in full swing, with several debates from the two main political parties behind them. While it would normally be a bit early for the media or much of the public to be paying such close attention to the November 2008 elections, this time is different.

[candidates from left to right] 1.) Sen. Barack Obama (IL-D) 2.) Gov. Bill Richardson (NV-D) 3.) Sen. Chris Dodd (CT-D) 4.) Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR-R) 5.) Rep. Duncan Hunter (CA-R) 6.) Mayor Rudy Giuliani (NY-R) 7.) Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY-D) 8.) Sen. John Edwards (NC-D) 9.) Sen. Joe Biden (DE-D) 10.) Gov. Jim Gilmore (VA-R) 11.) Gov. Tommy Thompson (WI-R) 12.) Sen. John McCain (AZ-R) 13.) Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH-D) 14. ) Sen. Mike Gravel (AK-D) 15.) Rep. Ron Paul (TX-R) 16.) Gov. Mitt Romney (MA-R) 17.) Sen. Sam Brownback (KS-R) 18.) Rep. Tom Tancredo (CO-R) 19.) Sen. Fred Thompson (TN-R) - unofficially running.

For one thing, the last time the presidential election was as wide open with no incumbent president or vice president being a presumed leader going into it was 80 yeas ago in 1928. As the hurdle of challenging an incumbent has been removed, the opportunity is ripe for candidates from all political parties to throw their hat in the ring.

The second thing driving media, and therefore public interest in this race, is the general perception that things are not going all that well for America, both at home and abroad, and that a change in direction is needed, particularly in regards to Iraq. That dissatisfaction with the status quo generally encourages more people to pay attention to who the next leader of the country will be, as opposed to when people are generally contented with the way things are, and their perceived urgency for social change diminishes.

That dissatisfaction has also been a significant reason why, with few exceptions, many Republicans have been distancing themselves and their positions from that of the nowlargely unpopular President Bush, particularly in the handling of Iraq, domestic spending, and the sticky question of immigration. At the same time, they want to be cautious not to alienate their conservative base.

For example, that conservative base has hinted that they would have a hard time backing candidate Mayor Rudy Giuliani for the Republican nomination because of his liberal views on social issues like abortion rights and civil unions for homosexuals. The humor was not lost on anybody when, during the Republican debates, lightning strikes temporarily cut off Giuliani’s microphone while he was explaining his position on abortion.

Both pundits and comedians have commented on how this stage of the campaign resembles a reality TV show, where one by one the weakest candidates are eliminated from consideration based upon which ones the media says can win. Chances are though, if the candidate is not running as a Democrat or Republican, the public is unlikely to even hear about them unless they are a celebrity and/or independently wealthy.

In 1992, Texas billionaire Ross Perot made a strong, but ultimately unsuccessful bid for the White House, demonstrating how in order to be a viable candidate outside of the two party system, independent wealth is essential. Lacking such wealth, third party and independent candidates have a difficult time getting the media to cover them as credible candidates. This makes it much harder to establish name recognition, raise money, organize the infrastructure needed to put up roadside election signs, and get out the voters on election day. Ralph Nader knows this well. Just getting on the ballot in every state can be a battle. Nader is still raising money to pay off legal fees he accrued fighting attempts by Democrats to keep him off the ballot in several states. He is not expected to be running for president in 2008. Qualifying for matching election funds also favors those with an established infrastructure, such as that enjoyed by the two major parties. In order to qualify for the government to match up to the first $250 of each individual campaign contribution received during party primaries, candidates must show that they have raised at least $5,000 from at least 20 different states.

[from top left to right] 1.) Newt Gingrich has hinted that he might also run for President, joining the already crowded field of contenders as a Republican. There are actually dozens of other independent and third party candidates running for president that never receive any media attention because they are predetermined to be “unelectable”. 2.) Ralph Nader, who has called for ending the two party duopoly, is not expected to run for president in 2008 as he is still paying off legal debt from 2004 fighting to stay on the ballot is several states. 3.) Ross Perot in 1992 was the last third party candidate thought to have any chance of winning. 4.) George Washington was the first and only elected independent candidate to become president.

Of course, simply being on the ballot, or even having name recognition is not all it takes. For a candidate to win, it is essential that people believe that they can win. This perception of “electability” is largely created by the media, the polls they produce, and the editors choice of which news stories to give the most emphasis. Polls can become self-fulfilling prophesies by driving the perception of who is “winning”, and affecting public opinion to vote the same way.

Perception is a large part of the campaign game. Especially now with the recent changes to the primary schedule. In order to have their individual states carry more clout in the primary selections, over twenty states will all hold their party primaries on February 5, 2008. Because so many of the party delegates for the candidates would be determined on that day, it has been dubbed “Super Duper Tuesday”. It would be difficult for any but the strongest of candidates to effectively campaign in all those states, thus reinforcing the need for candidates to raise large amounts of money long before election time to win hearts and minds.

Ray is Founder of Fourth Branch of America, LLC and Publisher of The Informed Constituent. He is also a Business Consultant with over eleven years of experience in the Information Technology (IT) industry. He may be reached at paladin@dallas.net

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